Friday, January 20, 2017

Bumping Higher On The Lists!

We have 11 days left in the month, and it's already the 3rd-wettest January on record at Sacramento Executive Airport (which has been recording since 1941). We will have just one more large storm this month, coming in on Sunday, and it's likely we'll reach first place. After that, it's likely we'll have nothing until about February 5th.

For the record, these Januarys are:

Year Inches of Rain
1978 9.14
1997 9.05
2017 8.91

Using the longer record of the "Downtown" Sacramento met station (which goes back to 1877), we're already the 9th wettest January on record:

Year Inches of Rain
1911 12.72
1995 12.35
1896 9.76
1909 9.65
1978 9.61
1993 9.37
1916 9.35
1878 9.26
2017 8.94

Last night, I took a look at the CNFRC QPF forecast. It looks like we'll reach 10.50 inches of rain for the month, which will put us first and third on these lists, respectively.

Janis Joplin's Demo For "Me And Bobby McGee"

Sweet!:
When singer-songwriter Kris Kristofferson penned the lyrics to “Me And Bobby McGee” in 1969, he supposedly had ex-lover Janis Joplin on his mind – but somehow, we don’t think he had any inkling of an idea that this would be one of the final songs ever recorded by the legend, or that it would go on to become her swan song.

Watching Popcorn Pop

Wow!
At 1,300 frames per second, the kernel leaps from the heating element, full of starch and joy, and explodes into its fluffy final form before tumbling down in a cloud of steam. Before it pops, the pressure inside reaches around 135 psi and its internal temperature hits 356 degrees fahrenheit.

But that’s not slow enough. At 30,000 FPS—1,250 times slower than real time—you can watch the kernel’s insides expand peel the hard hull apart like a rose blooming.

Trump's Inaugural Crowd Wasn't Large Enough, So They Used Obama's Crowds For Twitter

More cheese whiz:
The original image showed flag-waving crowds in front of the US Capitol.

But it was changed about an hour later, amid claims from Mr Trump's opponents that crowds at his inauguration were not as large as in 2013.

El Chapo Comes To New York

I guess Walter White turned down the DEA post:
Mexico’s most notorious drug kingpin, Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman, who gained fame for his daring prison escapes and an interview with Hollywood stars while a fugitive, has been extradited to the United States to face trafficking and other charges, authorities from both countries said.

A plane carrying Guzman landed Thursday night at Long Island MacArthur Airport in Islip, N.Y., according to the U.S. Department of Justice.

Graceful Exit

I Wonder Where Last Night's Filming Will Go?

Bunnies Are The Best

Nutbush City Limits

Awesome Protest

Caitland wonders:
"Don't grab me by the pussy. But here, stare at my tits because I'm mad at the patriarchy."

I don't understand what she was expecting to accomplish by doing this. I truly don't. Yeah, it's her right to peacefully protest. But really?
I reply:
Dissonance and protest are bosom buddies.

Inauguration Day Protest Comes Right To You

Restless night. As the rains accelerated, I was out knocking down puddles before they became hazards. Went to bed again around six.

Woke up at noon. Missed going to any demonstrations. But one of the nice things about urban areas is, if you oversleep, they now have this app that delivers demonstrations to your doorstep:

Thursday, January 19, 2017

As Dry As Arrakis Here In Sacramento

This week's Drought Monitor is out, and shows virtually no changes from last week. We're still as dry as Arrakis here in Sacramento.

Oh! The photo from yesterday! Of course!

Jordan Martinez stops everything to jerry-rig a rope in order to prevent The Anaconda from smacking into the wet overhead electrical line as it's drawn under the ground.


More Hands Make Light Work

And so, as the plumbers cleaned up after themselves, I started cutting tree branches from the fallen limb.

Lots of work. Eventually the plumbers left.

Then the handyman next door came over. We started sawing on the main branches. I brought out my chain saw, but it no longer seems to work. So we used his Skilsaw and Sawzall and hacksaw instead.

I worried about him. I could hear his labored breathing. But we got the wood cut and he hauled the main branches away. I stacked the rest of the foliage for eventual removal by ordinary city means.

Daylight Reveals Driveway Chaos

Busy morning. City inspector taking a look at my sewer line. Meanwhile, I'm looking at the fallen tree limb, which fell from next door's eucalyptus, and expertly avoided touching any city property, telephone lines or parked cars as it fell smack in my driveway.

Sure Is A Wet January Around Here

We have 13 days left in the month, and it's already the 7th-wettest January on record at Sacramento Executive Airport (which has been recording since 1941). Since we only need 1.02 inches to reach first place, and two more storms are forecast to arrive within the week, the likelihood we'll reach first place is very high.

For the record, these Januarys are:

Year Inches of rain
1978 9.14
1997 9.05
1995 8.81
1993 8.63
1969 8.50
1967 8.42
2017 8.12

Tomorrow I can look at the official downtown Sacramento precipitation readings, which go farther back, to 1877, and include even-more-epic Januarys (like 12.72 inches in 1911).

[UPDATE]
Using the longer record of the "Downtown" Sacramento met station (which goes back to 1877), we're already the 12th wettest January on record, with a good chunk of the month to go.

Year Inches of Rain
1911 12.72
1995 12.35
1896 9.76
1909 9.65
1978 9.61
1993 9.37
1916 9.35
1878 9.26
1969 8.90
1952 8.65
1895 8.42
2017 8.11

Apocalypse Now

Given the strength of the storm that came roaring in today, I was reluctant to drive to Davis for the monthly DMTC Board Meeting this evening, but duty called.

I don't know what happened to Davis traffic tonight - presumably the high winds and horizontal rains - but traffic was bollixed worse than I had ever seen. The miles-long rows of automobile headlights in all directions made it appear as if everyone was trying to leave Davis all at once, just as I was arriving. It was the Apocalypse, and everyone heard the news but me.

At the Board Meeting, I silently fretted about the large oak tree that looms above my house. The momentum arm on its largest branch is incredible. It's just a matter of time before all that wood comes through my roof. Would it be tonight?

After the Board Meeting, I went shopping at Target, and was surprised again by just how few people were there. The roads were deserted in all directions. When it is the Apocalypse, you don't hang around.

The biggest surprise of all was arriving home in Sacramento and discovering a eucalyptus branch weighing several hundred pounds sitting in the driveway where I usually park. The young and vigorous eucalyptus tree growing next door had a hidden flaw. If I hadn't gone to the DMTC Board Meeting, my car would have been smashed. Meanwhile, the precarious oak tree remains as poised as ever. I'll break out the chain saw tomorrow morning.

Moral: Be contrary when the next Apocalypse comes around. Don't run away - make friends with the Zombies.

Sewer Highlights

Worker ecstatic after finally succeeding in coaxing thick cable through broken-pipe section of sewer line.

Nicki Minaj's "Anaconda" comes to mind.



Jordan Martinez stops everything to jerry-rig a rope in order to prevent The Anaconda from smacking into the wet overhead electrical line as it's drawn under the ground.

And so now the sewer line is in the ground, ready for inspection, before finishing cement work. I can use the facilities again. But with all the rain and digging, it's a real mud bowl out there.

Mud

The sewer workers arrived and started getting into the muck just as the arriving storm intensified. Fun!

We should stage a mud-wrestling competition. One of those girls-gone-wild things.

Not just girls. Invite guys too. The fellow who is digging the holes is strikingly-handsome.

Wonder if the passing DMV workers are game?

New Mexico Rates 51st Among The 50 States

Come on, it's not THAT bad! The ABQ Journal article noted:
New Mexico ranked 51st among the 50 states ... New Mexico ranked particularly poorly on poverty (50th), unemployment (48th), violent crime rate (48th), divorce rate (46th) and the percentage of two-parent families (47th). The only relatively positive metrics were the infant mortality rate and the “family fun” ranking, in which the state ranked 18th. It was around the middle on child care costs (27th) and came in at 36th on housing affordability.
Meanwhile:
To help with the evaluation process, WalletHub’s data team compared the 50 states and the District of Columbia based on 40 key indicators of family-friendliness. Our data set ranges from “median family salary” to “housing affordability” to “unemployment rate.” Read on for the complete ranking, relocation advice from experts and a full description of our methodology.

Sewer Line Repair Starts

The Cement Saw just revved up. And so, it starts. Out with the old sewer; in with the new.

Tuesday, January 17, 2017

Things Are Looking Up

I guess this is optimism in today's America. Instead of gladiatorial combat, we'll merely perish cold and alone under bridges:
Kendzior agrees with Pepinsky that Trump-style authoritarianism won’t look like it does in other countries. The question, then, is how to make Americans care about the incremental degradation of constitutional values and political norms.

Puzzled By The Dissonance Regarding NM Snowpack

This article is pretty optimistic, but the Western Regional Climate Center maps show an average sort of winter. I wonder which narrative will win out?:

https://www.abqjournal.com/929039/weekend-rains-hit-records.html

ALBUQUERQUE, N.M. — A soggy weekend set rainfall records in Albuquerque and other New Mexico cities and added to a healthy snowpack shaping up in the state’s northern mountains.

High water content in the snowpack in New Mexico and Colorado bodes well for the spring runoff later this year.

“The snowpack is doing well,” National Weather Service meteorologist Brian Guyer said Monday. “So we’re going to have some runoff, finally.”

A good snowpack is welcome news, because New Mexico hasn’t had a good runoff since 2010. Last year was among the warmest on record, and a dry, windy spring robbed the state of much of its snowpack.

...Albuquerque International Sunport received 0.66 inch of rain Sunday, beating the previous Jan. 15 record of 0.48 inch, set in 1895.

Roswell received 0.33 inch of rain Sunday, beating a 1924 record. And Clayton in far northwestern New Mexico got 0.65 inch, beating a 1980 record.

But snowpack remains the state’s best news.

High-elevation areas of northern and central New Mexico have normal or above-normal snowpack, but the southern mountains are lagging, Guyer said.

Snowpack in the San Juan Basin around Chama is 177 percent of normal, packing 15 inches of liquid water, he said.

New Mexico also will benefit from Colorado’s healthy snowpack, which should feed New Mexico streams and rivers this spring.

In the Cumbres Pass area of Colorado, north of Chama, the snowpack has 26 inches of liquid water, Guyer said.

“That’s a lot of water,” he said.

Snowpack in New Mexico’s Sangre de Cristo Mountains is 150 percent of normal in some areas.

...The heaviest snowfall was recorded at the 10,000-foot Magdalena Ridge Observatory west of Socorro, which racked up at least 18 inches.

...Storm totals
Snowfall totals, Saturday and Sunday
Ski Santa Fe 15 inches
Ski Apache 14 inches
Sandia Peak Ski Area 14 inches
Angel Fire Resort 9 inches
Red River Ski Area 9 inches
Cuba 7 inches
Tucumcari 3 inches

Albuquerque rainfall totals, Saturday and Sunday
Coors and Coors Trail NW 1 inch
Arenal and Unser SW 0.98 inch
San Francisco and Barstow NE 0.98 inch
Constitution and Girard 0.98 inch
Irving and Golf Course NW 0.89 inch
Gibson and Carlisle SE 0.84 inch
Indian School and Tramway NE 0.84 inch

2015's "Jupiter Ascending" - Bureaucracy Scene

2015's "Jupiter Ascending" was a pretty bad sci-fi movie, but its Bureaucracy scene is pretty good:

Meanwhile, Near Tucson

I Could Watch This All Day

It's just the way I would have handled it.

Garry Kasparov Wonders

Garry Kasparov wonders:
I'm still waiting for Trump to say something about global affairs that hasn't literally been said first by the Kremlin.

Pet Selfie

Apparently from Reddit somewhere....

Donald Trump Press Conference Cold Open

Fortune Cookies Get More Meta All The Time

A New Episode Of "The Twilight Zone"

Scottish Newspaper Sunday Herald Likens Trump’s Inauguration to ‘The Twilight Zone’ in TV Listing.

There Is No One Alive Who Is Youer Than You

Noncooperation With Evil

“I became convinced that noncooperation with evil is as much a moral obligation as is cooperation with good.”
― Martin Luther King Jr.


APD Shootings Dramatically-Reduced From 2010

In the good news category, the Albuquerque Police Department has dramatically-reduced the number of times they fired their weapons. In 2010, they were shooting at everything that moved, including each other. A lot of people were injured and killed for no good reason. It was time to introduce some discipline:
Albuquerque police fired their weapons just seven times in the line of duty. It was the fewest by the department in a calendar year in at least seven years – and evidence, police officials say, that the hours of training officers have completed and policy changes called for in a settlement between the city and the U.S. Department of Justice are working.

Saturday, January 14, 2017

Milton Friedman, Fool

Conservative economists are a special breed of idiot:
Friedman’s theory says that people’s consumption isn’t affected by how much they earn day-to-day. Instead, what they care about is how much they expect to earn during a lifetime. If they have a sudden, temporary loss of income -- a spell of unemployment, for example -- they borrow money to ride out the dip. If they get a windfall, like a government stimulus check, they stick it in the bank for a rainy day rather than use it to boost consumption. Only if people believe that their future earning power has changed do they respond by adjusting how much they spend.

This idea is important because it meant that we shouldn’t expect fiscal stimulus to have much of an effect. Government checks are a temporary form of income, so Friedman’s theory predicts that it won’t change spending patterns, as advocates such as John Maynard Keynes believed. Even now, when economic models have become far more complex than anything in Friedman’s time, economists still go back to Friedman’s theory as a mental touchstone -- a fundamental intuition that guides the way they make their models. My first macroeconomics professor believed in it deeply and instinctively, and would even bring it up in department seminars.

...Ganong and Noel looked at data on the bank accounts of people who receive unemployment insurance (anonymous data, of course). They examined how spending tends to change when jobless benefits begin -- usually soon after people lose their jobs. And they also look at how spending changes when the benefits run out. That kind of individual-level data was unheard of in Friedman’s day, and it shows how computerization and empirics are revolutionizing the economics profession.

The authors’ first finding isn't too surprising -- when people lose their job, they start spending less. This is consistent with the credit-constraint model, since lots of people can’t borrow enough to maintain the lifestyle they enjoyed when they had a job. After that initial drop, the authors find that spending continues to drift lower. That’s no surprise either.

But it’s when unemployment-insurance benefits end that the real mystery begins. That produces another big, instant drop in spending -- one that’s almost twice as big as the fall that happens when people are laid off!

...The income drop is much bigger than the drop in spending, meaning that people aren’t living completely hand-to-mouth. But it’s much too big to be explained by any of the leading theories. Jobless-benefit exhaustion is hardly a surprise -- people know exactly when the checks are going to stop arriving. And if borrowing limitations were the story, people would have saved more beforehand, knowing their benefits were going to run out.

So this behavior is a big puzzle for the leading theories. It means there’s more going on here than banks’ simple unwillingness to lend. For some reason, consumers are short-termist -- when money stops coming in, they cut back, even if they know they’ll probably get a new job in the relatively near future.

"A Message To My Doomed Colleagues In The American Media"

Our supposed journalists, getting schooled:
Congratulations, US media! You’ve just covered your first press conference of an authoritarian leader with a massive ego and a deep disdain for your trade and everything you hold dear. We in Russia have been doing it for 12 years now — with a short hiatus when our leader wasn’t technically our leader — so quite a few things during Donald Trump’s press conference rang my bells.

...These things are carefully choreographed, typically last no less than four hours, and Putin always comes off as an omniscient and benevolent leader tending to a flock of unruly but adoring children. Given that Putin is probably a role model for Trump, it’s no surprise that he’s apparently taking a page from Putin’s playbook. I have some observations to share with my American colleagues. You’re in this for at least another four years, and you’ll be dealing with things Russian journalists have endured for almost two decades now. I’m talking about Putin here, but see if you can apply any of the below to your own leader.

Having Fun With Fascists Today

Texas Trolls need attention. I oblige. Their event got cancelled (HOORAY!) and now they are having a Pity Party:
UC Davis issued a statement on Friday night, “After consulting with UC Davis Police Department and UC Davis Student Affairs officials, the Davis College Republicans canceled tonight’s event featuring Breitbart columnist Milo Yiannopoulos. The decision was made at about 7:00 pm, 30 minutes prior to the scheduled start of the event, after a large number of protesters blocked access to the venue, and it was determined that it was no longer feasible to continue with the event safely.”

“I am deeply disappointed with the events of this evening,” said Interim Chancellor Ralph J. Hexter. “Our community is founded on principles of respect for all views, even those that we personally find repellent. As I have stated repeatedly, a university is at its best when it listens to and critically engages opposing views, especially ones that many of us find upsetting or even offensive.”

The decision was not one made by Milo himself.

“My event at UC Davis tonight has been cancelled after violence from left-wing protesters,” read a post on Yiannopoulos’ Facebook page. “There are reports of hammers, smashed windows and barricades being torn away. The campus police can’t guarantee anyone’s safety so I’m not being allowed anywhere near the building. Stay safe, everyone.”

The university confirmed, however, that despite some reports to the contrary, “there were no broken windows or other property damage during the protest. Earlier in the evening, one person was arrested inside the venue. No further arrests were made. “

Meanwhile, Mr. Yiannopoulos posted, “I’ll be marching through the UC Davis campus from 1 pm today, with Martin Shkreli and the College Republicans, to protest the cancellation of my event last night.”

The College Republicans added, “We will not stand for the repressive left perpetuating violence, censoring speech, and spreading hate.”

...In a statement to the UC Davis community earlier on Friday, Acting Chancellor Ralph Hextor wrote, “All of those who expressed concern referenced Mr. Yiannopoulos’s notoriety for making disrespectful and often offensive utterances directed at certain segments of our society, or global society, and for denigrating ideas with which he disagrees. They view the beliefs and statements in question, along with similar ones attributed to Mr. Shkreli, as being in sharp conflict with the type of institutional environment that UC Davis is committed to supporting—one that is inclusive and respectful to people of all backgrounds, and dedicated to the pursuit of deeper understanding through the free and civil exchange of ideas.”
TOO BAD, poor babies!

Cool Satellite Photo of Northern California

The Yolo Bypass really shows up. (via Mike Karoly)

Immunity Amnesia

Excellent!:
Like many viruses, measles is known to suppress the immune system for a few weeks after an infection. But previous studies in monkeys have suggested that measles takes this suppression to a whole new level: It erases immune protection to other diseases, Mina says.

So what does that mean? Well, say you get the chicken pox when you're 4 years old. Your immune system figures out how to fight it. So you don't get it again. But if you get measles when you're 5 years old, it could wipe out the memory of how to beat back the chicken pox. It's like the immune system has amnesia, Mina says.

"The immune system kind of comes back. The only problem is that it has forgotten what it once knew," he says.

Saw "Sing" Tonight

Loved it! Anyone involved with community theater or show business can appreciate the plot.

A little disturbed by the teens sitting next to me, though. Up and down, up and down, texting, talking on the phone, talking with each other, etc. I was in a good mood, though, so I bore with it, but their lack of focus made me wonder if smartphone culture has fried their brains.

Tower of Power Musicians Hit By Train

Oh, this spooks me! Yoshi's is a great place, but the trains in Jack London Square are alarming!:
OAKLAND, Calif.

Two musicians with the legendary Oakland funk/R&B band Tower of Power remained in critical condition Friday after being hit Thursday night by an Amtrak train in Jack London Square.

Drummer Dave Garibaldi, 70, a longtime member of the band, suffered head and facial injuries. Reports said officials were optimistic for a complete recovery. Bassist Marc Van Wageningen, who was filling in for regular bassist Frank Rocco Prestia, suffered broken ribs, a concussion and internal injuries and underwent surgery at an Oakland hospital Thursday night, according to the band's publicist. Reports said officials are waiting until he stabilizes before performing more tests.

Highland Hospital spokeswoman Louise Nakada said Friday that both men were "critical but stable." They were on their way to perform with the group at Yoshi's nightclub when they were hit by an Amtrak train on Embarcadero at Clay Street on Thursday evening, officials said. They apparently were coming from a nearby hotel and the two musicians were due to take the stage at 8 p.m.

...In interviews and on social media, people familiar with the Amtrak crossing where the accident occurred said they feel the intersection poses safety concerns. Oakland resident Lydia Offord has worked at BevMo in Jack London Square for two months, and though she said she has become accustomed to the commuter and freight trains rolling through every hour or more, she said she's still leery of crossing the tracks too quickly. She tends to use the pedestrian over-crossing that connects to a parking garage above Yoshi's to get across the street, she said. And if she's just running across the street to grab lunch, Offord said she always looks twice.

"I've always felt it's unsafe to cross the train tracks at times," Offord said. "I hear them every day and I always double-check to make sure none are coming."
I remember seeing a video where two pedestrians were preparing to cross at a rail crossing where visibility was somewhat limited by buildings. The lights were functioning and you could hear a train horn echoing off the buildings, so it was hard to tell what direction the train might be located. The pedestrian on the right looked right, saw the train, and stopped. The pedestrian on the left looked left, didn't see the train, thought his right flank was covered by his friend, walked right in front of the train, and got picked off like a bowling pin. Easy-peazy mistake to make.

Not Shooting At Illegals - Shooting At Each Other

"What we have here is a failure to communicate":
“There is no evidence that suggests ‘cross-border violence,’ ” the, said in an emailed statement. “This incident was a result of friendly fire among the hunting party, with contributing factors.”

Where We Stand After The Recent Storm Passed Across Southern California

The Russians Compromised The Green Party Too

With the focus on Trump and his nefarious Russian connections, it's important not to forget that the Russians compromised the Green Party too. Russia Today sponsored the Green Party debate and flew Jill Stein to Moscow for a speech. You'd think they'd be more careful, but apparently not:
While explosive in the context of reports about coordination between the Trump campaign and Russia, these two statements are verifiably true. We know that Jill Stein was not only a featured speaker at the Moscow event celebrating the 10th anniversary of Russia Today, it was that network which sponsored the Green Party debate in May as well as Stein’s response to the presidential debates between Clinton and Trump.

Thursday, January 12, 2017

Rain-Free Asia

With all the rainfall in the Pacific basin lately, it's quite striking to note that Asia will be nearly rain free next week. The largest continent on Earth, with hardly any rain (apart from southern Vietnam, parts of Afghanistan, and light snow in northern Siberia). China, in particular, will have virtually no rain.

Anxious Phone

My neurotic phone is telling me how to quickly get to and from Step One Dance and Fitness club. I didn't ask the phone for that information, but it thought I should know anyway, maybe because traffic is light. Because I NEED to know! And phones live to serve.

Tonight I'm with the DMTC crowd celebrating Mary Young's birthday, but usually I'm at Step One. The phone knows I'm supposed to be elsewhere, and it's making it nervous. Maybe traffic is bad and I need an alternate route, the phone thinks. But given the short distance, there is no better alternate route, which just makes the phone more apprehensive.

I'm surprised my phone is so invested.

On The Drought Borderline

Today's Drought Monitor report is out. It's kind of confusing. Sacramento is still in drought. East Davis is still in drought, but West Davis is out of drought. Hmmmm..... Does that even work? In any event, it's an evolving situation, and improving daily. According to Drought Monitor, we have been in a state of constant drought since February 26, 2013 - nearly four full years. Climatologists say the drought is the worst in a thousand years, plus.

Political Questions Too Deep Right Now

Friend Chloe Condon in San Francisco posts:
Why is our future President tweeting about L.L. Bean? Why did he tag Linda Bean's seafood account? Why am I looking at pics of lobster now? Why is our future President tweeting?

Surprising Met Statistics For Sacramento Executive Airport!

I can barely believe my figures! I was trying to calculate how the last five days of rain at Sacramento Executive Airport (Jan. 7-11, 2017: 5.58 inches) compared to other rainy 5-day periods in the past. So I downloaded a ton of met data from 1980-2016 (37 years of data, including years known with epic rains, like 1982 and 1986) and assembled a giant spreadsheet.

It turns out the last five days are Number One on the list, easily beating out second place, Feb. 13-17, 1986: 5.28 inches).

Well, that explains a lot!

This link provides more information about the storm of 1986. That stormy period was epic, but in higher terrain. Being in the Valley, Sacramento Executive Airport missed the heaviest of those rains, having only three heavy rain days that did not match our recent bout of rainfall. A fluke, but a legitimate one.

Wednesday, January 11, 2017

Better Call Saul, Season 3 - "Los Pollos Hermanos" Promo

This makes me so happy! Coming in April (or so)!

When It Rains, It Pours

Clearing In Northern California Valleys

Looks like rain will start ending today in Northern California valleys (although it will continue in the mountains). The follow up storm that was supposed to keep things wet here today is reforming to move south, along the coast and into Southern California, on Thursday and Friday.

Also, a shout out to synoptic modeling folks making the precipitation forecasts. Last week, they forecast 5.5 inches storm total for the Sacramento area, and they absolutely nailed it. That used to be the most inexact science of all, akin to guessing, but the science has improved to the point of witchcraft.

Puzzled by the misleading official pronouncements:
Haynes acknowledged that the second wave of storms produced somewhat higher flows than previously expected. The second wave was more intense than previously believed, and came sooner than expected, which meant the system didn’t have much of a chance to dry out from the weekend storms.

“We didn’t get as much of a break as we thought. The rivers didn’t get a chance to recede,” he said.

To me, this is mysterious. Yes, I will grant that second wave came sooner than expected, but only by a few hours. And the forecasts showed the second wave was going to be about as powerful as the first, and raining down on storm-soaked ground too. Somehow, that message got bollixed. I don't think the National Weather Service was at fault. Someone elsewhere, maybe at the CA Department of Water Resources, made a blue sky forecast and the poohbahs and the press ran with it.

Morning Tea

You Must Be The Pillow

Tuesday, January 10, 2017

That Damned Pool Again

I dawdled after Zumba, and went to Safeway as it was raining hard. By the time I got home, there was water again in the basement. So, a two hour fight with the flood, but things seem to be under control again.

Folsom Reservoir Offloading Water, Because It's Coming Down From The Sierras Too Fast

Currently dumping water into the American River, in order to keep control over the situation.


With more rain coming in and the lake becoming fuller, the bureau opened five floodgates at Folsom Dam and 18 gates at Nimbus Dam.

Throughout Monday night into Tuesday morning, Folsom Lake was up to 600,000 acre feet, which was 100,000 more acre feet than during the day.

At 9 a.m. on Tuesday, Jan. 10, Moore said they raised the amount of water released to 45,000 acre feet and at 1 p.m. they will raise the release to 50,000 acre feet.

“Based on continued wet conditions, adjustments will be made and we will continue to monitor the inflow and lake levels,” Moore said.

Trying To Master The Disaster Before It Masters Me

It rained like crazy early this afternoon, so I took a quick look to see if the basement was flooding again. It was, and coming fast! Finally found the issue. A surprise pool of water developed along the west wall of the house from runoff next door. Once inside the basement, the water pooled against the east wall, which just confused me. I set up a siphon to drain the water. A measure of control. Now it's raining again. The cycle continues....

And Here It Comes, This Afternoon!

I was baffled why weather reports over the weekend kept reassuring people the worst is over. The worst just arrived.
Steady soaking rains will intensify this evening, possibly culminating in a very intense burst of precipitation at some point tonight as the strong and fairly convective cold front passes through. This steady ramp-up of precipitation intensity, followed by a final burst of rain rates possibly approaching 1 inch/hour, will likely lead to widespread flooding given already wet antecedent conditions. In some parts of the Bay Area, Sacramento Valley, and Sierra Nevada foothills, life-threatening flash flooding of streams and smaller rivers could result. In addition, larger rivers from the Santa Cruz Mountains northward to the Mendocino coast may respond rapidly to this additional rainfall, possibly leading to the highest flood levels in years. The Sacramento River will reach its highest level in at least a decade, flooding the Yolo Bypass. Large and dangerous mudslides have already started to occur in many places, and this risk will remain very high for at least the next 24-48 hours in areas of steeper terrain and near recent wildfire burn scars.

Woo-Hoo! The Sacramento Weir Is Open!

First time since 2005!

What Do Conservatives Know?

I agree with this fellow. Given their self-serving biases, conservatives have no business picking and choosing what science is agreeable to them. Scientists are the ones who have the information and experience to best make those choices:
Sacramento State history professor Joseph A. Palermo set off a conservative firestorm after writing that people who deny climate change “shouldn’t be allowed” to use social media, GPS-directed drones or nuclear weapons.

“I’ve always believed that people who dismiss science in one area shouldn’t be able to benefit from science in others,” he wrote Dec. 27 on the Huffington Post website. “If Trump and his cohort believe the science of global warming is bogus then they shouldn’t be allowed to use the science of the Internet for their Twitter accounts, the science of global positioning for their drones, or the science of nuclear power for their weaponry.”

Last Third Of January Will Be Very Wet

Current forecasts suggest rains will continue until Thursday, Jan. 12th. Then we'll have a week's respite before getting slammed repeatedly with storms, from Thursday 1/19 for the remainder of the month. We'll break a few records too.

High IQ

Coming This Way!



This stream crossing is south of Arbuckle, closer to Dunnigan, and just inside Yolo County (38.917797°, -121.989513°). This water is making its merry way to Knight's Landing and the Sacramento River.

Celebrities and Opinions

Every one has one.

Rainfall Hasn't Looked This Good in Years!

Approaching normal levels in Southern California; well above normal in Northern California.

A Few Local Records

Very rainy in Sacramento, the last couple of days. Even rainier than similar storms of Dec. '14. Probably have to go back to that windy and rainy storm in January, 2008 to find an equivalent.

Rainfall for the season so far in Sacramento is 196% of average - nearly double! Northern California drought can't take much more of this abuse.

We have a few local Record Daily Rainfalls:

ON SATURDAY JANUARY 7TH...

SACRAMENTO EXEC. ARPT.... 1.24 (OLD RECORD) 0.75 IN 1993
DOWNTOWN SACRAMENTO...... 1.10 1.02 IN 1940
STOCKTON................. 0.79 0.62 IN 1953
MODESTO.................. 0.69 0.57 IN 1993

ON SUNDAY JANUARY 8TH, 2017...

SACRAMENTO EXEC. ARPT.... 1.95 (PREVIOUS RECORD) 1.75 IN 1995
DOWNTOWN SACRAMENTO...... 1.96 1.51 IN 2001

So Happy For "La La Land" At The Golden Globes!

Glad to hear "La La Land" did so well at the Golden Globes. Most charming movie in years. And such good use of the Los Angeles geography!:

Fire Hose

The cold front has been passing like a huge fire hose from north to south Sunday afternoon in California, first pressure-washing Modesto, then Fresno, and now Visalia.

I thought I understood flooding patterns in my basement, but while I was in Davis Sunday afternoon, brand new patterns appeared. I've got some sodden boxes, and a few ruined magazines, but it's still early yet with this series of storms. More damage is always a possibility in the days ahead.

It'll probably rain every day until Thursday. The drought can't take much more of this abuse. Tonight, I heard a distant sound. Took awhile to recognize the sound. Frogs. Croaking frogs puts the drought on life support in northern California.

Midnight: The fire hose just hit Bakersfield.

11 a.m. Monday: Now, even Blythe is getting a (much weakened) fire hose.

Umbrella

Friday, January 06, 2017

Every Time I Think My Streamline Moderne Talk Is Finished, I Find Myself Tweaking It More

But it's slowly getting better and better. I hope to knock it out of the park next month in Albuquerque.

Love The DHPU Crew

It's An Exaggerated Forecast, But Not By That Much

Rain is coming:
Areas around grass valley could experience upwards of 30-40" of rain this coming week. To put that in perspective, that's more than an ENTIRE year's worth of rainfall for Seattle. San Francisco could receive anywhere between 8-10" on top of already saturated soils (which is about 40% of an entire year's worth of rain).
Well this forecast is exaggerated a bit. Nevertheless, the amount of rain will be of flooding concern, mostly because it will rain six days straight, Saturday morning through Thursday afternoon, with almost no breaks at all. Around Grass Valley, rainfall amounts will be 10-11 inches, which is more than enough to flood communities, wash out bridges, and ruin roads. It's been so long since we've had one of these I'd almost forgotten what they look like. You read about them in musty old meteorological journals. Almost like they are describing a different planet.

I've been playing with the maps at the CNFRC. Here is their 6-day precipitation map.
By next weekend I'm sure it will seem a point of amusement, as we struggle to stay afloat while washing away to the sea, but we are still in a state of severe drought here in Sacramento County. Things have improved from the hallucinatory nightmare of the last five years, but Southern California particularly is still locked in drought.