Wednesday, June 05, 2013

Tropical Storm Andrea

Dwight E-Mails from Tampa:
Marc - I see that it now has a name, Tropical Storm Andrea. Any updates?
Discussion suggests that it is barely over tropical storm threshold. Strong wind shear suggests it’s in an unfavorable environment for strengthening. It’s supposed to move northward a little bit tonight, and then start accelerating northeast. Still, the heaviest rains should be south of you – between Tampa and Naples.

So, tomorrow will be wet and uncomfortable, but for a tropical storm it shouldn’t be too bad.

To be fair to the NVG model, it forecasts that the region of highest rain will swing northward just offshore, past Tampa, and cross the coast north of your location. I suspect that won’t happen, though, because it isn’t doing so now. Maybe it’s a failure of my imagination, but I still think the region of highest rain will cross the coast between Tampa and Naples. It will be an interesting test to see what happens tonight.

No matter where the region of highest rain goes, you’ll get sideswiped by some of it. Best of luck with sporadic street flooding, etc.

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