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University of Arizona meteorologists are using a sophisticated forecasting model, partially developed using UA research, to better understand the weather conditions that played into the tragic events that claimed the lives of 19 firefighters battling the Yarnell Hill Fire southwest of Prescott, Ariz. on June 30.

The UA is home only a handful of atmospheric science departments in the country that run a forecasting model in real time, just like the National Weather Service. The UA version of the Weather Research and Forecast Model, or WRF, offers about five to 10 times more detail than what is commonly available to the National Weather Service, and it is the only one of its kind in the Southwest.

"The following morning, we performed what weather forecasters call a 'post-mortem' – which is what we typically do in the aftermath of severe weather events," said Michael Leuthold, a meteorologist and computer expert in the department of atmospheric sciences. "We look at the weather data to get a better idea of the conditions leading up to that event and how well the model performed in forecasting it."

Such analyses not only help weather experts better understand the conditions leading up to extreme weather events, but the data are being used to improve the accuracy of short- and long-term weather forecasts.