Friday, August 16, 2013

Is The Arctic Recovering a Bit?

Walt in Aiken, SC poses a question:
Hey Marc: Why is it so cool here in SC this summer?!?!? Yesterday it was 63 at noon! In august! And, we haven't hit 95 yet all summer!
I had woken up from a fitful sleep, so I answered:
Usually it is because the position of the long wave trough shifted westward, directly over SC, compared to usual of the coast. Will check later. Strange things have been afoot all summer. Started with the unusual breakdown of the polar vortex into 2 vortices, and has continued with slow tropical storm season. And no matter what else happens, drought in NM.
Still the question gnawed at me. What was up?

Weather Channel blames air flow around high pressure system to the north.

I started playing with the animated GIFs here for the first half of August:

Offhand, it looks like pattern of Rossby waves is more vigorous this summer than in summers recently passed. Are temperature gradients increasing? The usual protection South Carolina enjoys from cold weather in the summer has broken down.

Interestingly, despite previous ice melt, the summer appears to have been unusually short this year in the Arctic.

So, those two observations would be consistent. But why the recovery in the Arctic? Climate feedbacks should operate in the other direction, and there was the bizarre vortex splitting earlier this summer that occurs only every 20 years, or so.

Ain’t weather grand? Whatever it is, I’m sure the cosmic reason for all the changes is to screw New Mexico out of rain. That’s the ultimate reason for everything. Nature decided to go all medieval and will do whatever is necessary to break the place.

August 15, 2013, 12Z (7 am EST). High over Ohio is about 1023 mb. Vigorous flow from the NE. Cold air funneling from New England.

August 12, 2011, 12Z (7 am EST): High over Ohio is about 1017 mb. Similar to 2013 situation, but weaker.

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