Sunday, May 01, 2016

Recap of the California 2015-16 Rainy Season

Time for a recap of the 2015-16 rainy season. At the Sacramento Executive Airport, rainfall amounts ended up 91% of normal - far better than 2013-15, but not nearly good enough to call an end to the drought.

Southern California didn't get nearly enough rain this winter. The dearth of water will cause much political friction in California this year.

Even though the rainy season is officially over, we still have excellent chances for rain in northern California on Thursday of this week. Looking forward to more!

It's unclear what next winter's rainy season may bring. Changes are afoot.

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation is increasing again. Not only is the eastern Pacific is warming, but the central Pacific north of 30 degrees latitude is cooling. What does that portend? Zonal winds? I don't know. After years of heat, hopefully a cooling trend will take hold soon.

Meanwhile, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology reports: "The 2015–16 El Niño is in its last stages. Recent changes in the tropical Pacific Ocean and atmosphere, combined with current climate model outlooks, suggest the likelihood of La Niña forming later in 2016 is around 50%." So, we'll see what that change brings too.

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