The latest modeling runs are out. The GFS computer model flipped its opinion and is now joining the NVG model with favoring the Tampa Catastrophe Scenario I illustrated earlier. Actually, GFS is trying to conjure up a compromise whereby Hurricane Irma bulldozes straight north from just south of Naples and hits Orlando, afflicting Florida's east coast and middle, before heading arcing northwest into Georgia. That path might miss Tampa, but maybe not.
Most of the other models still favor a path east of Florida, but they have inched their paths further west.
GFS' flip is a bad omen for Tampa. I was hoping NVG would flip.
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